EMBARQ's Dr. Lee Schipper, Director of Research, and Wei-Shiuen Ng, Research Analyst, contributed a chapter to the WRI report, “Growing in the Greenhouse: Protecting the Climate by Putting Development First,” published in December 2005. They examined two major emerging constraints on transport in the fast-growing urban cities of China: oil supply and urban infrastructure. EMBARQ’s engagement in China includes technical assistance with demonstration projects and financing, as well as policy research and analysis together with empowered local and national leaders.

The China Motorization Trends study focuses on automobile technology, alternative fuel, and mobility choices that are available to China, as well as policy measures that could be adopted to reduce the transport burden on oil use and greenhouse gas emissions. The trends of motorization in China and current transport, fuel and energy policies were reviewed and future policy and regulation improvements that could encourage the use of alternative technologies in the transport sector were discussed using examples from Europe, Japan and the U.S.

Three transport energy scenarios, Road Ahead, Oil Saved, and Integrated Transport were used to illustrate potential motorization trends given different policy, vehicle technology, alternative fuel, and driving behavior assumptions. In the Integrated Transport scenario, where small gasoline and electric cars are the highest in use, oil consumption is only 12 percent of its value in Road Ahead by 2020, while carbon emissions from transportation are 79 percent lower when compared to Road Ahead. Policy such as vehicle technology requirements, taxation, road pricing, and the prioritization of public and non-motorized transport are some of the suggested measures if China wants to reduce its energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions contributed by its expanding transport sector.